The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee began its October meeting today, Monday 5 October 2026. By the RBI's published schedule the meeting runs for three days, 5, 6 and 7 October, and the decision comes at the end of it. This piece was written on 5 October, before any decision, so it deals only with what the RBI has already said and what is worth watching on 7 October. It is information, not advice, and it is not a forecast.
Where the repo rate stands
At its previous meeting, from 3 to 5 August 2026, the six members of the committee voted unanimously to leave the policy repo rate at 5.25 per cent. The standing deposit facility rate stayed at 5.00 per cent, and the marginal standing facility rate and the Bank Rate stayed at 5.50 per cent. The committee also kept a neutral stance, which means it had not tied itself to a direction for rates.
A quick guide to the terms. The repo rate is what the RBI charges banks for short-term borrowing and is its main policy signal. The standing deposit facility is where banks park surplus cash with the RBI. The marginal standing facility is the window banks use to borrow overnight against securities. Banks set their own loan and deposit rates, so a change at the RBI does not reach every lender at once or by the same amount.
The numbers the RBI put on record in August
In the August resolution the RBI said consumer price inflation rose to 4.4 per cent in June 2026, after 16 months below the target. It said the rise came mainly from food and fuel. Core inflation, which leaves out food and fuel, was unchanged at 3.9 per cent over May and June.
The RBI projected CPI inflation of 5.0 per cent for 2026-27, with 4.7 per cent in the second quarter, 5.9 per cent in the third and 5.5 per cent in the fourth. Real GDP growth for the year was projected at 6.7 per cent. The risks it named were an uneven south-west monsoon with El Nino conditions, volatile oil prices, conflict in West Asia and global trade policy.
One line from the resolution tells you how the committee was reasoning. It said greater clarity was needed on inflation, its path and its make-up before any policy action, and that any action would have to weigh the need to recalibrate rates as growth and inflation evolve. Those are the RBI's own words, not ours.
The world outside India
The August resolution described a year of sharp market swings and stubborn inflation worries abroad, with the US dollar firmer on high yields and what it called a hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve. Since then, on 16 September 2026, the Fed's policy committee voted 12 to 0 to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.75 to 4 per cent. Central banks look at each other's moves, but each one decides for its own economy.
What to watch on 7 October
The first thing is the decision itself: the policy repo rate, the other rates tied to it, and the stance. After that, the vote count shows whether the six members agreed, as they did in August. The Governor's statement and the resolution then carry fresh growth and inflation projections, which can be compared line by line with the August figures above.
The minutes come later. After the August decision, the RBI said the minutes would be published on 19 August, two weeks after the meeting. The next MPC meeting after this one is scheduled for 2 to 4 December 2026.
Our earlier coverage of money and payments may help while you wait, including Bank of India's programmable digital rupee payments and the UPI merchant fee that starts on 15 October. Once the RBI publishes its documents on 7 October, we will report the outcome from them.
