The World Meteorological Organization urged humanitarian agencies on October 22 to turn El Niño forecasts into earlier preparation, particularly for displaced people and communities whose basic services are already under pressure. The appeal centres on tailoring weather information to the decisions aid organisations need to make.
WMO and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs have issued a joint call for coordinated anticipatory action. The October 22 account highlights weather services that translate forecasts into information humanitarian organisations can use.
The new global seasonal outlook, released on October 21, projects the average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region at approximately 3.8 degrees Celsius for November 2026 to January 2027, with warming peaking around December. This is a model forecast for a specified Pacific Ocean region and season. It is not a prediction that Indian temperatures will rise by that amount.
The forecast also tracks conditions beyond the Pacific. It expects the positive Indian Ocean Dipole to weaken towards its usual state, with a seasonal mean anomaly of 0.3 degrees Celsius. Both the northern and southern tropical Atlantic are expected to remain warmer than normal. WMO reports relatively narrow differences among the forecast systems for the Pacific outlook.
South Asia faces uneven winter rainfall
For India and its neighbours, the relevant regional assessment points to an uneven October to December rainfall season. WMO's October 14 account of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum forecast favours normal to above-normal rain in northwestern South Asia and parts of the east and south, including island countries. Below-normal rain is favoured across much of central and southern peninsular South Asia and some eastern areas.
Normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are expected across most of the nine-country region. The assessment draws on national meteorological services and regional climate specialists, including the WMO Regional Climate Centre in Pune. Its rainfall outlook matters particularly to southern India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, where these months supply substantial rain for agriculture. Its October to December window differs from the newer global November to January forecast.
A strong signal does not fix local weather
The US Climate Prediction Center's October 8 diagnosis provides a separate check on the Pacific. It reported a strengthening El Niño in ocean and atmospheric indicators, with sea-surface temperature anomalies above 4 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Rainfall and convection remained enhanced over the central and eastern Pacific but suppressed over Indonesia. These were reported conditions, distinct from predictions about the coming winter.
The centre put the chance of reaching its historic-event threshold at 83 per cent for October to December. That threshold uses a three-month RONI value of at least 2.5 degrees Celsius. It is a different measure from the WMO seasonal sea-surface-temperature anomaly. NOAA cautions that stronger events increase the likelihood of typical El Niño effects without guaranteeing them. Its next diagnostic discussion is scheduled for November 12.
NOAA's October 15 US winter outlook shows why the regional detail matters. For December 2026 to February 2027, it favours warmer conditions across much of the northern United States and wetter conditions across the southern tier and East Coast. Parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes face higher chances of dryness. Some other regions have equal chances of below-normal, normal or above-normal precipitation, rather than a clear tilt. Hawaii and much of the Southwest also have no favoured temperature category.
The separate US drought outlook, covering October 15 through January 2027, expects drought to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast, while worsening or development is favoured in parts of the northern Rockies. NOAA also warns that heavy precipitation falling on dry ground can cause flash floods and mudslides. Expected drought relief therefore does not remove the need for flood preparation.
Turning advance warning into preparation
WMO's coordination mechanism supplies weekly weather-and-water scans, monthly climate briefings and advice tailored to humanitarian operations. It says more than 750 tailored products have been delivered since 2022. The organisation stresses that seasonal outlooks describe regional tendencies; national and regional forecasts, interpreted by specialists, are needed to identify where and when action should be taken.
Dalimss News has separately covered the World Bank’s South Asia growth assessment and the COP17 review of biodiversity goals.
