The Central Water Commission’s seven-day outlook for the Ganga at Varanasi points to a fresh rise of about 1.76 metres that could take the Rajghat gauge near 71.28 metres, slightly above the danger mark of 71.262 metres, according to Tuesday morning briefings that cited the CWC forecast. Tuesday’s early reading was still in the 69.32–69.34 metre band while the river was reported falling at roughly a centimetre an hour — so the rise call is a forecast from midweek onward, not a claim that the gauge had already turned up on Tuesday morning.

That framing matters because it is a material update against the Sunday pack that carried a CWC reading of 69.76 metres and a receding narrative. The warning level remains 70.262 metres and the danger level 71.262 metres. The highest flood level cited for the station in the same briefings is 73.901 metres. A projected 71.28 metres would therefore sit a few centimetres into the danger band without approaching the historical high.

Some local Monday-night accounts had expected a faster fall through Tuesday–Wednesday on the strength of upstream easing. Other Tuesday briefings attributed to CWC describe the rise beginning from Wednesday. This desk is not inventing a reconciled hydrograph between those strands. The story locked here is the CWC seven-day rise forecast and the Tuesday morning stage still below warning. Readers should treat competing fall-speed claims as unverified against the commission’s own outlook until a later official bulletin settles the slope.

A climb of about 1.76 metres from the low-69s into the low-71s would push the city back through warning and into danger territory within the week if the forecast holds. That would reopen constraints on ghats, boat operations and low-lying lanes that had begun to ease when the Sunday reading sat below warning. District flood machinery that has been managing Varuna-side camps and colony pumping would face a second wave of attention on the main channel.

Some briefings also floated a mid-range touch near 71 metres around 10–12 September inside the same seven-day window. That is a timing sketch inside the CWC rise call, not a separate gauge stamp. Until the commission publishes a later verified stage, the desk will not treat 10–12 September as a hard crest date.

The arithmetic is blunt. Tuesday AM ~69.32–69.34 m. Warning 70.262 m. Danger 71.262 m. Forecast peak near 71.28 m on a ~1.76 m seven-day rise. HFL 73.901 m. None of those numbers licenses panic language, and none of them licenses an all-clear. They license watchfulness on the Rajghat board and on the landings that still hold monsoon water.

Ghat-side livelihoods read the gauge in centimetres because steps, boats and aarti platforms move with it. A forecast that brushes danger after a Sunday recession is exactly the kind of midweek turn the city has learned to respect. Until a later CWC stamp confirms either the rise or a continued fall, Varanasi’s river file sits on an attributed forecast above danger, not on a finished recession story.